Progress of the Online Soup Search
Version 1.03 of the soup-search script is now available. It's a Python script that will run on the current version of Golly for Windows, Mac, or Linux. Version 1.03 displays much more detail about the progress of the current search.
Methuselah survival times appear to fit a simple inverse exponential sequence. Lifespans between 1000(N-1) and 1000N are about twice as frequent as lifespans between 1000N and 1000(N+1) -- for a wide range of N. Version 1.03 of the script continuously updates an on-screen table of these frequencies, starting at N=5. It is an open question how far this relationship continues, or whether a larger sample will yield a more precise approximation of the curve.
Andrzej Okrasinski's "Lidka", found by his "Life Screensaver" Windows software in 2005, in a run of some 12 billion 20x20 soups -- apparently somewhere near the 3-billion-soups mark. Unfortunately, however, the email address given on the website does not appear to be functional, and some compatibility problems have been reported with the screensaver utility in recent versions of Windows.
With current CPU resources, "Lidka" is not likely to be surpassed very quickly. If the exponential drop in methuselah frequency continues at a similar rate through the next several 1000-tick "bins", then a methuselah lasting 30,000+ ticks might be expected to turn up, very roughly, sometime in the next year or two, after several billion soup patterns have been tallied. This lines up fairly well with the number of soups examined to discover "Lidka", though of course there are no guarantees that the first 30,000+ methuselah will appear at exactly the "right" time (statistically speaking).
Of course, the time needed to find a new record-breaker will go way down if enough computers join the distributed search effort...!